UPDATE: These aren't tanks, they're grain harvesters and other farming equipment. Pro-Russian telegrams were the first to point that out early this morning. Even the Wagner account is trolling the Russian MoD.

This footage, purportedly taken from a Russian KA52, shows the destruction of two tanks with anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). The Russian source claims that the tanks are Leopard 2, destroyed in an attempted Ukrainian counterattack. The Russian MOD has made claims in the past twelve hours that a Ukrainian offensive was repelled with heavy losses, a claim which Ukrainian sources deny. The assertion that Leopard 2 tanks have been committed to battle, much less destroyed, has also not been confirmed. Given that Russian state sources have falsely claimed Leopard kills in the past means that this must be taken with a grain of salt.

Russian official sources have established a predictable pattern regarding equipment donated by NATO countries. When western nations discuss bolstering Ukrainian capabilities with artillery systems, tanks, air defense, or jets, the official response from the Kremlin is to condemn the action and threaten some form of escalation, with a little nuclear saber-rattling thrown in for good measure. When the decision to provide equipment eventually occurs, Russian military and diplomatic sources tend to shift the narrative, downplaying the significance of the donated systems or their ability to affect the outcome of the conflict. Showing the Leopard 2 as vulnerable and impotent conforms with this narrative.

With that said, Ukraine will undoubtedly employ its new NATO kit in its upcoming counter offensive, but when and how these western-equipped units will be employed is up for debate. While Ukraine has limited the information available regarding their upcoming offensive, actions to date resemble shaping operations and limited objective attacks designed to identify week points in the Russian lines and to shift Russian reserves so that they cannot counter a breakthrough. Once Ukrainian commanders identify the decisive point, they will attempt to break Russian lines and then push fresh units through the gap to drive into Russian rear. It seems reasonable that newly trained units equipped with NATO kit would be reserved for this purpose. As for the tanks in the video above, it will be interesting to learn if they are indeed Leopard 2, and to see if the Leopard’s debut on a European battlefield was as anticlimactic as the Russians claim.